Scanning some news websites yesterday, I came across an interesting insight on the Triple-63.
This was on the Russian economy - President Vladimir Putin, the rouble and oil are all heading for a figure of 63. The president turns 63 in October 2015, oil is already trading at close to USD 63 per barrel, and the rouble (RUB) is rapidly losing its value to the dollar (USD) - it is currently at RUB 53 per USD. Speculation is that the RUB is likely to slide to 63 by next year.
Thus the Triple-63...
While it does seem to be a good omen that oil is finally falling, is it really so?
For most of the OECD countries, winter is setting in and the demand should rise putting pressure on prices, a normal seasonality. That isn't happening...
For some reason, OPEC is letting oil slide, despite the fact that Saudi Arabia's budget balances at nearly USD 90 to a barrel. That is indeed surprising because Saudi Arabia is the most influential OPEC member. The plight of other OPEC members isn't much different....
Indeed the price fall puts enormous pressure on Iran to fall in line with the West on the nuclear deal. Venezuela will be forced to tone-down the anti-US rhetoric.
But what intrigues me is why the Saudis are letting this fall in oil prices happen?
The answer lies perhaps in the Triple-63 - the West would love to see Putin in a mess, after how Putin embarrassed the West in Ukraine and Crimea. They would take Russia to the brink for that indignation. And to achieve that, the West wouldn't have battled an eyelid before doing what they probably did, my sixth sense that they did...
Play the Saudis, let oil fall to unforeseen levels and let Russia collapse, economically.
They would have had a quid-pro-quo for this...
Two things come to my mind - a deal between the West and the Saudis to let oil rally, say triple in say 2 years, to help the Saudis make all the money they have lost.
Or the second, which is equally sinister, let the Jihadis have a free run.... (that serves the military-industry complex well!)
Both deals are equally devastating for the world and India from an economic and a security standpoint...
India should immediately get into long-term oil contracts to build an optimal oil basket that will help us weather the the coming oil-shock. Also we now have a government that can take terror by its horns... But the government has to act fast....
But if oil triples, markets will tank, economies will falter, but gold will be the safe bet. So I would prescribe SIPping on gold ETFs starting now....
But then what happens to Russia, where we started this discussion?
The joker in the pack is China. Desperate to establish itself as a world power, it will do all it can to prop up the Russians. It will all boil down to a game of wits between the West and Russia....
Will the Triple-63 be a boon or a curse for the world economy? Time will tell.
Indeed the price fall puts enormous pressure on Iran to fall in line with the West on the nuclear deal. Venezuela will be forced to tone-down the anti-US rhetoric.
But what intrigues me is why the Saudis are letting this fall in oil prices happen?
The answer lies perhaps in the Triple-63 - the West would love to see Putin in a mess, after how Putin embarrassed the West in Ukraine and Crimea. They would take Russia to the brink for that indignation. And to achieve that, the West wouldn't have battled an eyelid before doing what they probably did, my sixth sense that they did...
Play the Saudis, let oil fall to unforeseen levels and let Russia collapse, economically.
They would have had a quid-pro-quo for this...
Two things come to my mind - a deal between the West and the Saudis to let oil rally, say triple in say 2 years, to help the Saudis make all the money they have lost.
Or the second, which is equally sinister, let the Jihadis have a free run.... (that serves the military-industry complex well!)
Both deals are equally devastating for the world and India from an economic and a security standpoint...
India should immediately get into long-term oil contracts to build an optimal oil basket that will help us weather the the coming oil-shock. Also we now have a government that can take terror by its horns... But the government has to act fast....
But if oil triples, markets will tank, economies will falter, but gold will be the safe bet. So I would prescribe SIPping on gold ETFs starting now....
But then what happens to Russia, where we started this discussion?
The joker in the pack is China. Desperate to establish itself as a world power, it will do all it can to prop up the Russians. It will all boil down to a game of wits between the West and Russia....
Will the Triple-63 be a boon or a curse for the world economy? Time will tell.
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